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Program members also study the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on economic performance. One ongoing activity of this program is the Business Dating Committee, which is the official arbiter of the free dating site like badoo login page and end of recessions and expansions.
List of Members Program Working Papersin chronological order. It has been my honor to serve as its director from its founding, 32 years ago. As I write, many eyes are on the program's Business Cycle Dating Committee, which I also chair, as dating japanese guy advice grows that the recession that began in December may dating cafe anmelden bei yahoo registrieren facebook come extremely free dating sites in usa an end recently black dating sites san antonio is about to come to an end.
The following graph shows the two main indicators the committee considers in deciding on the dates of turning points in economic activity, real GDP and payroll employment:. Both measures are stated as indexes that reached 1. That month was the exact peak of employment, but real GDP reached a slightly higher value in the second quarter of Both measures plunged in late as the financial crisis took hold.
Real GDP began to grow in the summer of but employment continued to decline. The percentage drop in employment in the current recession was the largest since the government began the collection free biker dating sites no sign up the data inalthough not online dating tips women as large as the decline in the Great Depression in toaccording to annual data from earlier sources.
The huge difference between the recent behavior of output and employment reflects the unprecedented growth of productivity in In determining the date for the trough in economic activity, the committee will be deciding how to weigh output and employment in its definition of economic activity.
Each group has two or three leaders, who determine the membership of the group and its methods of operation, timing of its meetings, and content of its programs.
The first two papers are theoretical in nature, exploring new ideas and frameworks. The others are more quantitative in nature, exploring the significance of different financial market frictions in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium DSGE models.
Motivated by recent events as well, other researchers in this group are exploring the efficacy of different policies in economies where a zero bound on the nominal interest rate formula binding, and in economies in which the spread on interest rates to borrowers and lenders experiences large changes. In "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Vasco Curdia and Michael Woodford extend the basic New Keynesian model of the monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers and borrowers.
This spread can vary for either exogenous or endogenous reasons. Woodford discusses policy rules that provide good approximations to optimal policy in such environments.
Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo analyze the circumstances under which fiscal policy has a large and socially beneficial effect.
Standard macro models imply that the effect of fiscal policy on output is positive but relatively small. However, these effects can be very large if the zero-bound constraint on the nominal interest rate is binding. A key determinant of the size of the multiplier is the state of the world in which new government spending comes on line. If it comes on line in future periods when the nominal interest rate is zero, then there is a large effect on current output. If it comes on line in future periods where the nominal interest rate is positive, then the current effect on government spending is smaller.
This finding supports the view that, for fiscal policy to be effective, government spending must come online in a timely manner. The recent financial crisis has sparked new and interesting research on the sources of the crisis, how such a crisis might be prevented or foreseen, the potential impact on the macroeconomy, and policy responses. The group has discussed several papers related to market dynamics that are similar to bank runs, but occur outside the banking sector.
Julio Rotemberg presented a novel model of how payments clearing among interconnected agents are settled, and how the amount of liquidity needed to clear the payments depends on the payments younger among the agents. Two additional papers by Zhiguo He and Wei Xiong and by Viral Acharya, Douglas Gale, and Tanju Yorulmazer consider the effect of financing longer-term investments by rolling over short-term assets, as in many financial institutions.
The papers consider the risks associated with this maturity transformation and the roles played by volatility, liquidity, and maturity, as well the potential role of financial regulation in mitigating percentage risks. The group discussed two related empirical papers.
The first, "Banking Guy and Crisis Dating," by John Boyd, Gianni De Nicolo, and Elena Loukoianova, carefully considers the roots of measured banking crises and finds that the crises arise from underlying systemic bank shocks.
Since the shocks pre-date the crises, using the shocks to date the origins of the crisis changes one's view of the dynamics and causes of financial crises. A second paper, by Manuel Adelino, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul Willenlooks at data during the financial crisis, starting inand shows that because of re-default risk and self-cures mortgages becoming current againrenegotiating delinquent mortgages is not very attractive to investors.
Hence, payment-reducing loan modifications have been uncommon in both securitized and non-securitized pools of mortgages.
Finally, this group considered several theoretical treatments of the recent financial crisis. In "Securitization, Transparency, and Liquidity," Marco Pagano and Paolo Volpin argue that there are cases where the release of coarse information is preferred by bond issuers enhancing primary market liquidity, at the cost of secondary market liquidity.
In "Bursting Bubbles: Consequences and Cures," Narayana Kocherlakota, now the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discussed a framework in which asset market bubbles can arise, because the asset can be used as collateral for borrowing.
He shows that the consequences of bursting the bubble can be dramatic and persistent in the real and financial economy. This group considers models of the labor market, data analysis, and the use of models to carry out substantive policy analysis. Modern models of the labor market stress the underlying dynamics in job and worker flows.
High-quality data on these flows is central to developing better models of these processes and assessing their consequences for a variety of substantive and policy issues. Therefore, this group has always emphasized the analysis of new datasets that can shed additional light on the empirical properties of these flows. The paper uses data from the recent JOLTS dataset and the facts that it presents will play a key role in guiding the development and calibration of models of labor market dynamics.
Understanding the nature and causes of labor market fluctuations associated with business cycles remains a key issue in economics, and research on this issue has always featured prominently in the group's meetings. A recent example is my paper, "Reconciling Cyclical Movements in the Marginal Value of Time and the Marginal Product of Labor," which shows that a standard macroeconomic model appended to capture labor market frictions, in the spirit of work pioneered by Diamond, Mortensen, and Pissarides, can reconcile observed labor market fluctuations in a framework where all bilateral gains from trade are realized.
It does not follow that fluctuations are optimal from the perspective of society-high unemployment is socially inefficient. Another long-standing issue in the analysis of aggregate labor market outcomes concerns the elasticity of aggregate labor supply, and in particular, the apparent inconsistency between low labor-supply elasticities that are estimated from micro data and the much larger values implicit in many aggregate models.
The elasticity of aggregate labor supply has important implications both for the propagation of shocks in business cycle models and for assessing the implications of fiscal policy instruments, such as tax and transfer programs.
Work by Richard Rogerson and Johanna Wallenius argues that there is no inconsistency. They present a model of life- cycle labor supply in which standard procedures used to infer elasticities using micro data would find a small elasticity even though the aggregate elasticity is large.
Central to this finding is the fact that individuals adjust their lifetime labor supply along two margins: how much to work while employed, and what fraction of their lives to spend in employment. An important implication of the analysis is that tax and transfer policies generate large responses in aggregate hours worked.
Watson and Kenneth D. It meets jointly with a group on forecasting under the Committee on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics umbrella, with support from the National Science Foundation. Group meetings tend to involve two types of papers: one type with models or forecasts of one or more variables, using novel or technically advanced methods; a second type in which the authors develop and evaluate a new methodology for estimation, inference, or prediction. Many of the papers that are presented fit in both categories.
In the first category, Jens H. Christensen, Francis X. Diebold, and Glenn D. Rudebusch study the term structure of nominal government debt, showing that a combination of a standard parametric specification and an arbitrage-free specification leads to improvement in predictive performance. In the second category, Serena Ng, Emanuel Moench, and Simon Potter, in "Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models," develop and apply a procedure that allows a hierarchy across cross-section units prior to estimation; this is natural, for example, in applications with global, country, and regional factors.
These types of models have become one of the main workhorses of modern macroeconomics and related fields such as finance. Sophisticated empirical analysis based on dynamic equilibrium models has produced novel substantive findings. An increasing number of policymaking institutions, including the Federal Reserve Board and many central banks including the European Central Bank, are actively formulating and estimating DSGE models for policy analysis and forecasting.
Many of the group's activities are aimed at creating bridges of communication and cooperation between pure macroeconomics researchers, time-series econometricians, and central bank staff. One active area of research is the incorporation of time variation into the parameterization of DSGE models. Time-varying parameters can be used, for instance, to capture changes in monetary policy over the post-war period.
Roger Farmer, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha develop and apply tools to solve rational expectations models with regime-switching coefficients. Vasco Curdia and Ricardo Reis examine to what extent the conclusions derived from estimated DSGE models, for instance with respect to the sources of business cycles, are sensitive to assumptions about the driving forces of macro fluctuations.
Martin Uribe and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe study the role of news or anticipated shocks for business cycle fluctuations. Because direct information about the agents' information sets is not available, this information needs to be extracted in an efficient manner from the auto-covariance properties of observable macroeconomic variables.
Research presented at these meetings includes analyses of great depressions, industrial revolutions, the diffusion of new technologies, secular shifts in hours worked and leisure, long-run trends in marriage, women's labor supply, and fertility, the connection between the formation and dissolution of institutions and the economy, the rise in urbanization; international trade and capital flows, and the growth and location of business.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Enrique Mendoza, and Linda Tesar challenge the standard view that Finland's depression of the s was caused by a banking crisis. Instead, they show that the depression began before the crisis, and its inception coincided with the breakup of the former Soviet Union.
Their paper develops a quantitative theoretic model of Finland's depression based on the very large trade relationship with the USSR that collapsed following the end of the Soviet Union. They show how this shock temporarily reduced output, as the production inputs from this sector were not easily reallocated to other sectors, and then show how this shock was propagated for many years by labor market rigidities that prevented wages from declining and that kept unemployment high.
Another paper that integrates modern approaches to modeling with a long-standing question of historical interest is by Matthias Doepke, Moshe Hazan, and Yushiy Maoz They develop a theory of the post-war baby boom based on the increased demand for female labor during the war, using a model with endogenous fertility and labor force participation. The theory implies that women who worked in the war accumulated important work experience which led to higher wages and also a persistent increase in labor force participation after the war, resulting in that cohort delaying births.
In contrast, the theory predicts that younger women will tend to have children earlier. The quantitative analysis generates a substantial baby boom, followed by a baby bust, simply reflecting the one-time wartime increase in the demand for female labor. The theory's predictions are consistent with differences in the timing of births across countries that differed with respect to the relative increases in their wartime demand for female labor in the s.
Betsy Caucutt, Thomas Cooley, and Nezih Guner undertake an analysis of the rise of social security during the beginning of the twentieth century. They argue that the rise of such programs in the West is linked to the decline of the agrarian economy and the rise of the industrial one. In decades past, the rural population did not favor social security.
The median voter was a middle-aged person who earned a lot of his income from land. With industrialization, the value of rural land declined. The population shifted from the countryside to the city. This led to a shift in the median voter. Now, she was an older, middle-aged urban resident who favored the imposition of a social security system. The current shortcomings of the CEX were discussed extensively, with an eye to possible changes and innovations that would improve the quality of the consumption measures currently available.
The active participation of the BLS delegation was particularly welcome. Much of its discussions have centered on the interplay of markets, technological change, trade, and redistributive policies with geographical, institutional, and cultural factors in accounting for the remarkable transformation of the world income distribution over the last two centuries, as well as in the sharp rise in inequality within countries during recent decades.
The groups' work is organized along three main avenues of research. The first line focuses on deep-rooted determinants of the growth process and comparative economic development throughout the course of history, and up to the modern era. The second theme is the role of political institutions and social conflict in determining cross-country differences in income per capita.
FACTORS THAT SHAPE BUSINESS CYCLES
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Working Papers & Publications
Variance business cycles is the percentage but irregular up-and-down movement in economic activity, girl dating questions before //parents prayers for strength business fluctuations in real gross dating product GDP and other macroeconomic variables. A business explained is typically characterized formula four phases—recession, recovery, growth, and decline—that repeat themselves over time. Economists note, however, that complete business cycles vary in length. The duration of business cycles can be anywhere from about two to twelve years, with most cycles averaging six years in length. Some business analysts use the business cycle model and terminology to study and explain fluctuations in business inventory and other individual elements of corporate operations.
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