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Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. In this study, we review the growing marketing literature on how to attenuate or amplify the impact of BC fluctuations. Our discussion focuses on three key aspects: 1 the scope of, and insights from, existing BC research in marketing, 2 advancements in the methods to study various BC phenomena in marketing, and 3 some dating sites with free chat and fast reply trends that offer new challenges and opportunities for future BC research in marketing.
Marketing research has long overlooked the impact of business cycle BC fluctuations. Importantly, these cycles are visible across multiple aggregate economic series such as real Gross Domestic Product GDPreal income, or employment, among others Stock and Watson For the U. This identification of peaks and troughs is judgmental, and open to debate.
Other researchers have put forward specific rules for defining a recession based on economic aggregates. A popular definition often attributed to a New York Times best date restaurants des moines by Shiskin, for example, characterizes a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
This definition has been applied in marketing studies by, among others, Kamakura and Du and Sethuraman et al. BCs have traditionally received ample attention in the economic literature, and many of the definitions and operationalizations have not surprisingly originated from that field. Reckitt put this down to its proactive marketing strategy to persuade its customers to still pay for its more expensive branded products, even when times got tough. Reckitt Benckiser is not unique.
Meanwhile, about one-fifth of all leading firms—those in the top quartile in their industry based on financial performance—fell to the bottom quartile in the economic downturn The Wall Street Journal A similar heterogeneity is observed in Gulati et al. This has resulted in a new stream of literature that provides marketing managers with guidelines on how to weather tight economic times.
The aim of this article dating chinese malaysian food recipes to review existing research on BCs in marketing, and to point out where additional research is called for.
Our discussion focuses on three key areas: 1 the scope of, and insights from, existing BC research in marketing, 2 advancements in the methods to study various BC phenomena dating dresses for age 40 marketing, and 3 some emerging trends that offer new challenges and opportunities for future BC research in marketing.
Historically, BCs were studied primarily in the macro-economic literature see, for example, Christiano and Fitgerald or Zarnowitz Beforeacademic marketing research on the topic was scarce. In a review by Srinivasan, Rangaswamy and Lilien p. However, sincethe number of marketing studies on BCs has grown rapidly.
Deleersnyder et al. Durables are more sensitive to BCs than other industries; cyclical changes are asymmetric across expansions and contractions. In a currency crisis, consumers economize on their expenditures through consumption smoothing at various levels: intertemporal, intercategory, and intracategory. Gasoline prices have a much larger impact on grocery dating a lebanese girl bikini backside photos behavior than broad economic factors.
A sudden price increase results in a drop in shopping frequency, while purchase volume shifts away from grocery retailers towards supercenters. A greater shift occurs from regular-priced national brands to promoted ones than to private labels.
Among national-brand purchasers, bottom-tier brands lose, mid-tier brands gain, and top-tier brands dating start jazzercise franchise information relatively unaffected. International tourism shows excessive sensitivity to BCs but higher cyclical volatility benefits the industry through a higher growth in the long run.
Srinivasan et al. Pro-active marketing strategies in a recession result in superior business performance even during the recession. Demand can have both a direct and indirect effect through its impact on competition on prices. Firms within the same industry may react differently to changing demand conditions. Advertising is considerably more sensitive to the BC than the economy as a whole. Cutting advertising in contractions results in long-term social and managerial losses. National-brand manufacturers reduce major new product introductions, advertising and promotional pressure, while retailers support their private labels in a contraction, causing a counter-cyclical private-label success that is only partly recovered in subsequent expansions.
During recessions, non-family firms tend to decrease advertising intensities and rates of new product introduction, while family firms are likely to maintain advertising and new product introduction.
Family firms outperform non-family firms during recessions. Average advertising spending decreases during contractions. Positive shifts in advertising during contractions predict better subsequent performance. Economic factors influence consumer price knowledge: it increases when economic activity weakens, while it decreases when economic conditions improve.
Market orientation has an adverse effect on firm performance after a crisis, while strategic flexibility has a positive influence on firm performance after the crisis.
The relationship between customer satisfaction and consumer spending growth does not differ between contractions and expansions. For most companies, the most productive decision is to increase rather than decrease advertising in a recession. Sethuraman et al. Neither short-term nor long-term advertising elasticities are lower during recessions. Hence, as a minimum managers need not reduce advertising in a recession.
B2C and across goods vs. The differential effectiveness of both instruments is especially pronounced in highly cyclical industries. The stock-market reaction to unexpected changes in advertising and same-store sales does not differ between contractions and expansions. Price sensitivity is predominantly counter-cyclical; it rises when the economy weakens.
In some categories, the opposite holds. Although short-term price and advertising elasticities do not change over the BC, long-term elasticities do. In contractions, brand managers should reallocate marketing budgets from advertising to price discounts. The relationship between customer satisfaction and consumer expenditures does not vary with per-capita income. Customer service satisfaction matters more when the economy is doing well, not worse.
Some customer loyalty strategies for retaining customers are more effective when consumer confidence is lower. Movie attendance is counter-cyclical. The allocation of marketing budgets across countries over the BC is determined by the pro- or counter-cyclical nature of three factors: unit sales, marketing effectiveness, and per-unit profit contribution. Several studies see panel A of Table 2 have evaluated the impact of BCs on a variety of performance measures.
These studies often consider not only the extent of cyclical sensitivity in a particular industry or category, but also whether the resulting cyclical fluctuations are symmetric.
Studies often compare the cyclical fluctuations in the variable of interest with those in the overall economy, and consider 1 whether they occur in the same pro-cyclical or opposite counter-cyclical direction and 2 whether they get amplified or attenuated relative to those in the economy as a whole.
Similarly, Dekimpe et al. The latter adjustments are, on average, less pronounced than in other economic sectors, even though there is considerable heterogeneity across countries. Governmental or public spending on healthcare, on the other hand, is much less affected by cyclical ups and downs, in order to assure a continued healthcare service irrespective of the state of the economy. In terms of movie demand, Mukherjee and Xiao find that while overall demand for movies decreases, the demand for escapist movies increases, a conclusion similar to the findings of Dhar and Weinberg Other studies focus more on how consumers re-allocate their budgets, rather than on the absolute size of the up- or downswings.
Dutt and PadmanabhanMillet et al. Dutt and Padmanabhan describe how, in a monetary crisis, consumers smooth their consumption at various levels: they shift spending over time and between different types of durable goods, non-durable goods and services. Millet et al. Kamakura and Duin turn, show a shift in consumption from positional status-conveying goods and services to non-positional ones during recessions, and from discretionary to more necessary products, even if the total consumer budget is unaffected.
Finally, apart from economizing on total spending or instead of shifting spending across product categories, research has also shown how, especially for necessary goods, consumers reduce their spending during contractions by switching to less expensive brands within the category. Lamey et al. Dekimpe et al. Switching to cheaper brands allows consumers to reduce total spending without having to give in on the amount consumed.
Ma et al. When gasoline prices rise sharply, consumers have less disposable income, and must find ways to reduce spending in other areas. This study examines and finds various potential avenues for savings in consumer grocery spending: shopping frequency is reduced and shifts towards supercenter retail formats, from national brands to private labels, and from regular-priced to promotional products.
Relatedly, Cha et al. While previous research has documented the possibility of multiple coping strategies, little is known about their relative occurrence. What are the categories where consumers opt to consume less, under what circumstances do they switch to cheaper alternatives, and for what products do they intensify their search to still buy the same brand either in a cheaper retail outlet or on deal?
And how and why does this choice of coping strategy vary across consumer segments. Most prior studies have taken a fairly aggregate point of view, and focused, for example, on country-level durable sales, total category sales, or overall private-label shares.
More research is needed to determine which consumers are more reluctant to adjust their consumption behavior when the economic conditions deteriorate, and opt instead to incur additional debt to maintain as long as possible their pre-crisis consumption standards. Apart from the size and direction of the BC fluctuations in performance, a number of studies in this research stream have documented asymmetries between up- and downward movements in category or industry performance.
This is observed in durable sales by Deleersnyder et al. In tourism, Dekimpe et al. Asymmetries can occur in both the speed and depth of the cyclical fluctuations.
In Deleersnyder et al. Asymmetries in the speed of downward versus upward adjustments, or steepness asymmetry, may arise from the way consumers gain slow or lose fast trust in the economic climate Nooteboom et al. Consequently, consumers are quick in cutting back on their durable expenditures in a contraction, while upward adjustments after the contraction are more slowly.
As such, it takes considerably more time to restore the initial consumer spending. Asymmetries also arise in the size of the peaks and troughs of durable sales, causing the troughs to be deeper relative to the mean level than the peaks are tall, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as deepness asymmetry. A rationale for this can be found in prospect theory Tversky and Kahnemanwhich posits that people react more extensively to unfavorable changes than to comparable gains. If households experience or expect a deterioration in their wages or income, they considerably reduce their spending levels, especially for more discretionary products, while upward adjustments during expansions trigger more moderate reactions Deleersnyder et al.
Evidence of comparable asymmetries with CPG products is given in Lamey et al. First, more studies have documented on the extent of cyclical sensitivity than on the cyclical asymmetry in performance series. As such, little is known on possible contingency factors for, respectively, level and speed asymmetries.
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Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. In this study, we review the growing dating cafe gutscheincode eventim prodajna mesta novi literature on how to attenuate or amplify the impact of BC fluctuations. Our discussion focuses on three key aspects: 1 the scope of, and insights from, existing BC research in marketing, 2 advancements in the methods to study various BC phenomena in marketing, and 3 some emerging trends that offer new challenges and opportunities for future BC research in marketing. Marketing research has long overlooked the impact of business cycle BC fluctuations. Importantly, these cycles are visible across multiple aggregate economic series such as real Gross Domestic Product GDPreal income, or employment, among others Stock and Watson For the U. This identification of peaks and troughs is judgmental, and open to debate. Other researchers have put forward specific rules for defining a recession based on economic aggregates. A popular definition often attributed to a New York Times article by Shiskin, for example, characterizes a recession as two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This definition has been applied in marketing studies by, among others, Kamakura and Du and Sethuraman et al.
In all cases, cyclical ups and downs depend not only on internal system cyclical processes and their factors in countries but also on the consequences of intercountry interaction. The ability to measure and predict business cycles, taking into account their mutual influence, is a prerequisite for the development of an adequate business policy of countries and their associations. This chapter is devoted to the substantiation of methods of statistical assessment and modeling of macroeconomic business cycles on the basis of their understanding as an integrated effect of changing business phases in different sectors, as well as the impact of synchronization and harmonization of business cycles in both the economy of one country and the intercountry levels. The main directions of quantitative research of business cycles based on the econometric approach, which are widely presented in the literature, fall into two main groups. The first of these is the identification of stable cyclic components in the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. In most cases, the authors of scientific publications use the real GDP gross domestic product , as an indicator for investigation of macroeconomic business cycle.
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